odp

In his 'Master Trading' portfolio, Bernie Schaeffer uses fundamental, technical and sentiment metrics to select trades. Here's a trio of ideas from Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"I have initiated a long position in Office Depot (NYSE: ODP). Price action for ODP has been strong, with the equity gaining more than 108% year-to-date.

"Recently, the equity pulled back to its 20-day moving average. There is heavy out-of-the-money put open interest for ODP. An unwinding of the short positions related to this open interest could provide a tailwind for the stock.

Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS), a seller of office supplies and a competitor of chains such as Office Depot (NYSE: ODP), OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), reported Q2 earnings on Tuesday. Although they weren't that great, I can't say I felt they were a total disaster, either. I think the quarter was lackluster and indicative of the immense work ahead for management in terms of getting people into their stores and increasing sales per transaction.

According to the press release, total sales increased 9% and adjusted earnings per share declined 24% to 16 cents. That's a steep drop, but they did match analyst expectations. Staples used the increase it saw in free cash flow in a smart way: debt reduction. I approve of that move, to be sure.

For private equity investors, one of the worst sectors has been retailing. Just look at some of the failed deals: Goody's, Linens 'n Things, Mervyns, and so on.

Despite the carnage, it looks like private equity operators are seeing opportunity in the sector. For example, CCMP Capital Advisors recently agreed to pay $202 million for defunct Eddie Bauer.

And, this week we got another deal: BC Partners announced a $350 million direct investment in Office Depot (NYSE: ODP).

Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS) issued its Q1 report on Wednesday. Call me unimpressed. It beat earnings estimates by a penny, coming in at 22 cents on an adjusted basis. Sure, that's what investors want to see. They want the bottom line to go beyond expectations.

But there isn't a lot of excitement to be had with the Staples story. According to the press release, that 22-cent figure represented a decline of 27% in per-share profit. Furthermore, there's weakness in terms of same-store sales. In the North American market, comps dipped 8%. On the international front, comps went down by 14% in Europe.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings as revenues surged in the quarter.
• Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC) just beat Q3 expectations despite weak same-store sales growth.
• Corn Products International Inc. (NYSE: CPO) Q1 results were dragged down by higher corn costs.
• Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) Q1 earnings sank on falling sales, job cuts and acquisition costs.
• Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) reported a deeper-than-expected Q1 loss and suspended its dividend.
• Energizer Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ENR) posted better-than-expected Q2 earnings but revenue declined.

Bright and early this morning, Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) announced that the global recession led to a fiscal first-quarter loss of 20 cents per share, down from a profit of 25 cents per share last year.

The office supply retailer stated that demand for office supplies, namely computers and other big-ticket items, dropped thanks to the economic slowdown. Taking charges out of the equation, ODP earned 10 cents per share, which was better than the estimated loss of 9 cents per share. This positive surprise pushed ODP shares higher in pre-market trading.

Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS), whose colleagues include Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) and OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), is set to report earnings for the fourth quarter on Wednesday, March 11. The famous seller of office supplies has seen its stock go from a 52-week high of $26.57 all the way down to a 52-week low of $13.57.

Actually, that's one of the better ranges I've seen! Goes to show how bad things are out there. Staples saw its shares close at $14.63 on Monday, so a beat on the bottom line could really help things out.

Will management be able to beat? I don't have much confidence that it will, but that doesn't necessarily have to do with Staples per se, it's just that the economy's got me down on so many of these earnings prospects. Analysts are hoping for Staples to do about 42 cents per share in Q4, which would represent a 10% drop in the bottom line.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Bidz.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDZ) Q4 earnings release included notice about an SEC investigation.
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) saw net income drop by almost 50%, falling short of estimates.
• Ducommun Inc. (NYSE: DCO) received an analyst's downgrade after its Q4 earnings release.
• Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) said Q4 earnings fell due to weakness at Gap and Old Navy stores.
• General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) worse-than-expected results prompted speculation about its survival.

Rough day for office supply retailer Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) yesterday. The firm saw its shares fall slightly more than 13% after reporting a fourth-quarter loss of $5.64 per share. A year ago, ODP raked in a profit of seven cents per share, a stark turnaround thanks to the current economy. These results included charges of $4.54 per share and 37 cents per share, all of which stemmed from costs to close certain facilities, cut jobs and write-down assets. Adjusting the results for these changes, ODP lost 73 cents per share - still much larger than the six-cent loss expected by the Street.

Quarterly sales slumped 15% to $3.27 billion from last year's sales of $3.87 billion. Breaking the sales down a bit, the sultan of staples saw its sales in North America fall 17% - with international sales slipping 15%.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says until he releases a framework for the banks, all bounces will be short-lived.

I feel better. Now I hope people selling stocks also feel better so they stop selling, so we can get higher prices, so I can sell.

There.

I think everyone agrees with me.

There.

Most important, I hope that everyone who is selling banks or shorting banks takes a bank holiday so we can get through this period.

There.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says companies saddled with high debt loads can be found in every sector in every business.

Overleveraged. Too much debt. Need to pay down debt. How many times have you read that story?

You read it so much because it plays out every day and plays havoc with stock picking almost every time you see a savory stock down on its luck.

This weekend, as I went through the charts, I was amazed at how low some stocks have gone, stocks that I would normally say to just take a flyer on, but turn out to have so much debt, short- and long-term, that they are just too dangerous.

Consider these perhaps poisonous morsels:

There's no doubt that retailers are struggling to stay in business. This is creating a "tug of war" between retailers who are leasing space in shopping centers and mall owners who are also struggling to keep stores from closing and creating added vacancies.

Some mall owners are having to refinance debt coming due to stay open. Just to point out how dire circumstances are, General Growth Properties, the country's second largest mall owner warned that it may be forced to file for bankruptcy if it cannot reschedule its huge debt. On Wall Street, the prices of REIT's (real estate investment trusts) have fallen by 44% during the past year (added: as a Dow Jones index tracking 22 REITS indicates).

Now, on the other side, retailers are trying to renegotiate their leases to lower their overhead. These include such names as Office Depot (NYSE: ODP), Chico's Fas Inc. (NYSE: CHS), Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR), and The Gap (NYSE: GPS). Some mall owners are helping retailers by lowering "square feet" prices in their leases, while others are saying "no."

Vacancy rates are rising and some analysts are predicting that a growing number of mall owners will default on their mortgages and thereby put additional pressure on our banking system.

Do you own a business in a shopping mall? What are your present circumstances?

List of Potential Victims in $50 Billion Ponzi Scheme Grows
Investors who put their fortunes in the hands of arrested New York money manager Bernard Madoff are waiting to hear how much of their stake is left. The roster of potential victims has grown exponentially longer in the past few days. Among those who have acknowledged potential losses so far: Magnate Mort Zuckerman, the foundation of Holocaust survivor Elie Weisel, Sen. Frank Lautenberg and a charity of movie director Steven Spielberg. Also, former Philadelphia Eagles owner Norman Braman, New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon and J. Ezra Merkin, the chairman of GMAC Financial Services, the Palm Beach Country Club, charities, hedge funds and more.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2008-12-13-wall-street-arrest_N.htm
Also: Losses in Madoff Case Spread
Also: The 17th Floor, Where Wealth Went to Vanish

Worst Investments of 2008: Crocs, Yellow Pages, Banks and More
The year will go down as one of the worst ever for investors, but which investments were worst? If you were an investor in R.H. Donnelley which publishes Yellow Pages phone directories you have seen a 99% drop in your investment. And if you were an investor in Crocs shoes you saw your investments shrink by 95% this year. Others that had a very rough year included the investment banks, automakers, newspaper companies, Office Depot, Sprint Nextel and the list goes on and on.
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/12/1215_worst_investment/1.htm

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) reported a narrower Q3 net loss and reaffirmed its outlook.
• Barclays (NYSE: BCS) earnings and dividend prospects resulted in an analyst's downgrade.
• Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC) posted its 19th straight quarter of positive growth.
• Choice Hotels International Inc. (NYSE: CHH) better-than-expected Q3 report led to an upgrade.
• Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) reported strong Q3 numbers and maintained its revenue outlook.
• DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA) better-than-expected Q3 results driven by Kung Fu Panda.
• Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) reported another record profit in Q3 driven by record high fuel prices.
• Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) reported a better-than-expected Q3 profit and offered guidance.
• Hercules Inc. (NYSE: HPC) posted lower Q3 earnings and anounced [regulatory] approval of its buyout.
• Janus Capital Group Inc. (NYSE: JNS) weaker-than-expected results led to an analyst's downgrade.
• Legg Mason Inc. (NYSE: LM) swung to a smaller-than-expected Q2 net loss and shares soared.
• Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) dismal Q3 results managed to beat low earnings expectations.
• Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) Q3 results included lower revenue and a net loss due to economic conditions.
• Qwest Communications International Inc. (NYSE: Q) unimpressive Q3 numbers fell short of estimates.
• Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) swung to a greater-than-expected net loss due in part to competition.
• Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) missed Q3 estimates and warned of flat full-year earnings.
• Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) strong Q3 results included a gain from a sale of a refinery.
• Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) beat Q4 earnings expectations after adjustment for litigation-related charges.
• Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR) fell short of revenue estimates and announced job cuts.

Poor Office Depot (NYSE: ODP). Have you checked the price of the retailer's stock lately? It closed on Wednesday with a value of $2.10. It actually rose over 11% that day upon news of its third-quarter earnings. I can assure you that I wasn't buying the stock.

The numbers didn't tell the story of a company that would make a worthy addition to a stock portfolio hell bent on hanging tough during a market meltdown. Instead, the 7% revenue decrease and the loss per share, on an adjusted basis, of $0.01 relate a tale of a business that one should ignore. At least that's the way I see things. Comps in the North American retail division were horrible. The return on invested capital as calculated by management took a significant drop. Let's face it, Office Depot just isn't cutting it. Granted, the economy is wreaking havoc on the business, but come to think of it, I don't really have a good picture of what the brand is supposed to be about. Well, I know it's about office supplies, but why should I shop there as opposed to Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS) or OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX)? Good question, huh? Looks like the retailer needs to get the message out as to why the shopping experience at its locations is of a higher value compared to the office stores mentioned. For that matter, I'm sure a lot of people use Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) to pick up office supplies too. My point is that management needs to step up its game and create some better marketing programs for its stores. Be creative like Staples. That "easy button" device is turning into a cool cultural icon (well, I might be exaggerating, but I think it's creative, at any rate).

Earlier, I said "at least that's the way I see things" in terms of my opinion about the sad state of Office Depot, but I suppose I should point out that there are obviously a lot of investors out there who don't see a lot to love when it comes to this chain. The stock is down over 63% on the one-month period at the time of this writing. I see no reason to speculate on this business. The economy isn't getting better, and Office Depot just doesn't seem to be in a strong position. What will it take to turn things around? Like I say, in addition to hoping for an improved macro climate, come up with a better advertising campaign, build a more intense connection with the consumer. Office supplies are commodities, but shopping experience is not. That's the opportunity. Differentiating a brand from the competition based on things like customer service and an easy time of it at the checkout register is a traditional strategy in the retail industry. If Office Depot can offer something in that area, it should let me know about it. Since just about every retailer is struggling to keep the traffic coming into their chains, now is the time to exploit the other guy's weakened state and grab every customer possible.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.